Gamers Without Borders 2022. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Banesignature
Fata · 18 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 18 games
Iosignature
Sneyking · 15 games
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 15 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 14 games
Death Prophetsignature
33 · 12 games
Doom
33 · 12 games
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
434 picks · 275 bans
Mars
423 picks · 570 bans
Tiny
386 picks · 449 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 727 bans
Sand King
325 picks · 442 bans
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 466 bans
Pangolier
283 picks · 424 bans
Storm Spirit
277 picks · 419 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 57%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total77% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:35
PuckChamp 23%Tundra Esports 77%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:05.
Game 2prediction correct32:12
PuckChamp 23%Tundra Esports 77%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 77%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2