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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 49 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 45 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 44 games
61%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 40 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 37 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 31 game
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 31 game
71%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 31 game
58%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 37 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 27 games
63%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 26 games
77%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
76%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 25 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 25 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 24 games
67%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
591 picks · 869 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 529 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
451 picks · 409 bans
46%
Warlock
Warlock
436 picks · 302 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
402 picks · 1035 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
389 picks · 672 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 576 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
368 picks · 550 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 4
Model total57% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:20
Aurora Gaming 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 43:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerV-Tune
49% · 214 games42% · 97 games
LunaParker
Luna
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
46% · 184 games55% · 132 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
43% · 125 games53% · 274 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
53% · 266 games53% · 520 games
WarlockWhitemon
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
51% · 607 games54% · 373 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct16:32
Aurora Gaming 47%Tundra Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerV-Tune
47% · 215 games50% · 180 games
MorphlingParker
Morphling
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
45% · 195 games52% · 219 games
Doom33
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
51% · 308 games51% · 332 games
Batriderbzm
Batrider
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
48% · 146 games53% · 422 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Tiny
TinyMira
41% · 403 games62% · 114 games
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct16:31
Aurora Gaming 46%Tundra Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
48% · 205 games54% · 179 games
MedusaParker
Medusa
Abaddon
AbaddonV-Tune
47% · 252 games52% · 326 games
Batrider33
Batrider
Monkey King
Monkey KingMikoto
50% · 160 games52% · 337 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
49% · 302 games52% · 118 games
Keeper of the LightAri
Keeper of the Light
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
40% · 134 games55% · 93 games
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 57%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3