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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Thiolicor · 36 games
61%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 30 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 22 games
73%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 21 game
52%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 21 game
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 20 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 19 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 18 games
44%

Vici Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
71%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
y` · 16 games
38%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 10 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 10 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
shiro · 10 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 10 games
70%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
591 picks · 873 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 528 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
454 picks · 411 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
436 picks · 302 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
404 picks · 1036 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 670 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 578 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
371 picks · 552 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:11
Heroic 52%Vici Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 31:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
53% · 239 games47% · 286 games
Beastmastershiro
Beastmaster
Bristleback
BristlebackTaiLung
54% · 410 games46% · 312 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Ursa
UrsaYuma
50% · 344 games44% · 269 games
MarsFaith_bian
Mars
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
54% · 412 games46% · 157 games
Ancient ApparitionpLAnet
Ancient Apparition
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKJ
62% · 100 games45% · 481 game
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct20:23
Heroic 47%Vici Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 47:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYuma
53% · 311 games57% · 302 games
Templar Assassinshiro
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
48% · 396 games51% · 638 games
PuckXm
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTaiLung
45% · 444 games49% · 410 games
MarsFaith_bian
Mars
Warlock
WarlockKJ
45% · 581 game49% · 706 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
50% · 406 games54% · 82 games
Faceless VoidpLAnet
Faceless Void
Game 3prediction correct29:7
Heroic 50%Vici Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 45:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
52% · 257 games44% · 253 games
Windrangershiro
Windranger
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYuma
52% · 301 game47% · 135 games
BrewmasterFaith_bian
Brewmaster
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTaiLung
56% · 392 games47% · 529 games
TinyXm
Tiny
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
56% · 454 games47% · 211 games
PhoenixpLAnet
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKJ
53% · 384 games46% · 660 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 53%
Series resultHeroic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3