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Gamers Without Borders 2022. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 31 game
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 27 games
44%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 21 game
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 21 game
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Ainkrad · 20 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 19 games
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
VANSKOR · 18 games
67%

Tundra Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 18 games
72%
Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 17 games
76%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 15 games
67%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 15 games
60%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 14 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
33 · 12 games
67%
Doom
Doom
33 · 12 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
434 picks · 273 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
423 picks · 564 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
382 picks · 445 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
347 picks · 721 bans
54%
Sand King
Sand King
321 picks · 438 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 466 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
281 picks · 422 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
273 picks · 414 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:28
Nemiga Gaming 25%Tundra Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightKiritych
55% · 87 games49% · 108 games
TinySkiter
Tiny
Pudge
PudgeTheChosenOne
48% · 9 games63% · 4 games
Visage33
Visage
Enchantress
EnchantressHeaven
48% · 197 games46% · 85 games
SnapfireNine
Snapfire
Pugna
PugnaVANSKOR
37% · 87 games54% · 59 games
PangolierSaksa
Pangolier
62% · 124 games
BaneSneyking
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 86%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1