?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CIS Rejectsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
GeneRaL · 14 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 13 games
54%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Solo · 12 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
No[o]ne · 11 games
27%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
ALOHADANCE · 11 games
55%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
V-Tune · 10 games
40%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Solo · 9 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 9 games
56%

CIS Rejects

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
434 picks · 272 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
426 picks · 561 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
382 picks · 444 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 721 bans
55%
Sand King
Sand King
319 picks · 436 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 464 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
280 picks · 420 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
272 picks · 415 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:12
Natus Vincere 37%CIS Rejects 63%
The model gave 63% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 30:06.
Game 2prediction correct15:20
Natus Vincere 37%CIS Rejects 63%
The model gave 63% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 39:00.
Game 3prediction missed41:30
Natus Vincere 37%CIS Rejects 63%
The model gave 63% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 48:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 63%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3