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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKIwin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CHILLAXloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI

Bane
Banesignature
smN · 13 games
85%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Corrupted · 8 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 7 games
86%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Hellscream · 7 games
86%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hellscream · 6 games
83%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 6 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 5 games
80%

CHILLAX

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
436 picks · 272 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
426 picks · 562 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
380 picks · 443 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
345 picks · 720 bans
55%
Sand King
Sand King
318 picks · 434 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 464 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
277 picks · 420 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
273 picks · 415 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 59%
Hero pool strength62% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:19
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 51%CHILLAX 49%
The model gave 51% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 32:43.
Game 2prediction missed20:37
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 51%CHILLAX 49%
The model gave 51% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 29:16.
Game 3prediction correct32:15
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 51%CHILLAX 49%
The model gave 51% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 31:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI · 51%
Series resultKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3