Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
CIS Rejectswin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PuckChamploss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
435 picks · 271 bans
Mars
425 picks · 561 bans
Tiny
379 picks · 441 bans
Death Prophet
345 picks · 717 bans
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 463 bans
Sand King
316 picks · 433 bans
Pangolier
276 picks · 420 bans
Storm Spirit
272 picks · 414 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% CIS Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:31
CIS Rejects 53%PuckChamp 47%
The model gave 53% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 46:29.
Game 2prediction missed17:24
CIS Rejects 53%PuckChamp 47%
The model gave 53% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 35:04.
Game 3prediction missed41:27
CIS Rejects 53%PuckChamp 47%
The model gave 53% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 1:03:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 53%
Series resultCIS Rejects 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3