Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs predictionCChipsblloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
YNTwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chipsbl
Pangolieroften banned
Tabletkee · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tabletkee · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tabletkee · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Tabletkee · 1 game
YNT
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dominic · 7 games
Grimstroke
jesv · 7 games
Skywrath Mage
jesv · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 6 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 6 games
Bane
dSa · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
434 picks · 271 bans
Mars
424 picks · 560 bans
Tiny
379 picks · 441 bans
Death Prophet
344 picks · 717 bans
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 462 bans
Sand King
316 picks · 431 bans
Pangolier
275 picks · 419 bans
Storm Spirit
272 picks · 414 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 26%
Hero pool strength53% Chipsbl
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Chipsbl
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:36
Chipsbl 57%YNT 43%
The model gave 57% on Chipsbl — the game was taken by YNT in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Night StalkerTabletkee
LunaDarkLord^
33% · 8 games
UnderlordDominic
32% · 33 games
PangolierMalr1ne
33% · 11 games
Dark Willowjesv
56% · 12 games
Death ProphetdSa
Game 2prediction correct19:44
Chipsbl 49%YNT 51%
The model gave 51% on YNT — the game was taken by YNT in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Legion CommanderTabletkee
UrsaDarkLord^
66% · 25 games
RazorMalr1ne
55% · 54 games
MarsDominic
58% · 20 games
Dark Willowjesv
61% · 37 games
BanedSa
Model check result
Model favoriteChipsbl · 55%
Series resultYNT 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2