Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs predictionNMNo Monkey Businessloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KCKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Monkey Business
Razoroften banned
xannii · 9 games
Kunkkasignature
xannii · 8 games
Hoodwink
illusion · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 6 games
Marsoften banned
MieRo · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
MieRo · 6 games
Tinyoften banned
xannii · 6 games
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Banesignature
smN · 11 games
Sand Kingsignature
Corrupted · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 7 games
Dark Willowsignature
Hellscream · 6 games
Phoenixsignature
Hellscream · 6 games
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 6 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 5 games
Axeoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
430 picks · 273 bans
Mars
418 picks · 561 bans
Tiny
377 picks · 438 bans
Death Prophet
344 picks · 713 bans
Ember Spirit
312 picks · 459 bans
Sand King
312 picks · 429 bans
Pangolier
274 picks · 412 bans
Storm Spirit
268 picks · 409 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 67%
Hero pool strength62% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:32
No Monkey Business 37%KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 63%
The model gave 63% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaKiritych
TinyMunkushi~
AxemeLes
MarsCorrupted
Ember Spiritxannii
Dark WillowHellscream
Keeper of the Lightillusion
BanesmN
Game 2prediction correct24:37
No Monkey Business 39%KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 61%
The model gave 61% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 34:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerKiritych
JuggernautMunkushi~
Puckxannii
MarsCorrupted
Sand KingmeLes
Skywrath MageHellscream
Hoodwinkillusion
BanesmN
Model check result
Model favoriteKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI · 67%
Series resultKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2