Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Iooften banned
Eixn · 2 games
Bane
Eixn · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 1 game
Mirana
OmaR · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
OmaR · 1 game
Skywrath Mage
OmaR · 1 game
Snapfire
No!ob · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 1 game
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 31 game
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 30 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 27 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 25 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 25 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 24 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 19 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
430 picks · 273 bans
Mars
418 picks · 562 bans
Tiny
376 picks · 438 bans
Death Prophet
343 picks · 713 bans
Sand King
312 picks · 427 bans
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 458 bans
Pangolier
274 picks · 411 bans
Storm Spirit
268 picks · 407 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:23
PSG Quest 27%Hydra 73%
The model gave 73% on Hydra — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 38:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetNo!ob
Ember SpiritAskold
Earth SpiritOmaR
TinyKami
UndyingEixn
ViperBlizzy
49% · 60 games
Monkey KingMuka
56% · 72 games
EnchantressZayac
Game 2prediction missed26:13
PSG Quest 28%Hydra 72%
The model gave 72% on Hydra — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 27:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckNo!ob
TerrorbladeKami
MiranaOmaR
LeshracAskold
Death ProphetEixn
MarsBlizzy
53% · 56 games
PugnaZayac
48% · 200 games
HoodwinkMuka
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 87%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2