Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3loss 1:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bramewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Bane
Kidaro · 12 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 5 games
Hoodwink
velheor · 5 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
Razoroften banned
Antares · 5 games
Brame
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 18 games
Spirit Breakersignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 17 games
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
Invokeroften banned
W1sh- · 14 games
Marsoften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
Kunkkaoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
429 picks · 273 bans
Mars
415 picks · 561 bans
Tiny
375 picks · 436 bans
Death Prophet
341 picks · 710 bans
Sand King
312 picks · 422 bans
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 458 bans
Pangolier
275 picks · 406 bans
Storm Spirit
266 picks · 406 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 37%
Hero pool strength56% Brame
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:10
X3 39%Brame 61%
The model gave 61% on Brame — the game was taken by X3 in 27:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladenesfeer
Death ProphetSkyLark
Dragon KnightMastery
LinaSsaSpartan
InvokerNattyNarwhal
Chaos KnightFocus
Enchantressvelheor
MiranaQupe
Undyingantoha
BaneThuG
Game 2prediction correct19:25
X3 40%Brame 60%
The model gave 60% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusanesfeer
TerrorbladeFocus
Death ProphetNattyNarwhal
RazorSkyLark
MarsMastery
Storm SpiritThuG
Keeper of the Lightvelheor
Dragon KnightQupe
Treant Protectorantoha
EnchantressSsaSpartan
Game 3prediction correct13:31
X3 39%Brame 61%
The model gave 61% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 25:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Magenesfeer
MedusaFocus
Death ProphetNattyNarwhal
Dragon KnightThuG
MarsMastery
AxeSkyLark
Snapfirevelheor
HoodwinkdEsire
Enchantressantoha
Crystal MaidenSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 70%
Series resultBrame 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3