Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs predictionCChipsblloss 1:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rune Eaterswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chipsbl
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tabletkee · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Tabletkee · 1 game
Rune Eaters
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 5 games
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
429 picks · 272 bans
Mars
413 picks · 560 bans
Tiny
373 picks · 436 bans
Death Prophet
341 picks · 710 bans
Sand King
312 picks · 419 bans
Ember Spirit
309 picks · 458 bans
Pangolier
274 picks · 404 bans
Storm Spirit
266 picks · 406 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:38
Chipsbl 25%Rune Eaters 75%
The model gave 75% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 38:10.
Game 2prediction missed30:32
Chipsbl 25%Rune Eaters 75%
The model gave 75% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Chipsbl in 37:23.
Game 3prediction correct12:33
Chipsbl 25%Rune Eaters 75%
The model gave 75% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 26:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 75%
Series resultRune Eaters 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3