Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Mind Gameswin 1:0series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Virtus.proloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Virtus.pro
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 13 games
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 9 games
Weaversignature
yamich · 9 games
Abaddonsignature
1ls · 8 games
Banesignature
Xakoda · 8 games
Grimstroke
Xakoda · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
426 picks · 272 bans
Mars
412 picks · 549 bans
Tiny
370 picks · 428 bans
Death Prophet
342 picks · 702 bans
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 449 bans
Sand King
305 picks · 409 bans
Pangolier
270 picks · 396 bans
Weaver
261 picks · 310 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 81%
Series resultMind Games 1:0
Series predictionmissed