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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
X3win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

No games played over 6 months.

X3

Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 11 games
18%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%
Lina
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 5 games
40%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
40%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Antares · 5 games
20%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
426 picks · 273 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 550 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
371 picks · 426 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
342 picks · 698 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
305 picks · 449 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
304 picks · 405 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
266 picks · 396 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
263 picks · 311 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:26
PSG Quest 51%X3 49%
The model gave 51% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 28:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo!ob
50% · 303 games46% · 145 games
Kunkkanesfeer
Kunkka
Mirana
MiranaOmaR
55% · 222 games48% · 19 games
HuskarNattyNarwhal
Huskar
Io
IoEixn
54% · 257 games44% · 200 games
PangolierMastery
Pangolier
44% · 152 games
Hoodwinkvelheor
Hoodwink
52% · 266 games
Baneantoha
Bane
Game 2prediction missed8:45
PSG Quest 51%X3 49%
The model gave 51% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by X3 in 31:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireNo!ob
50% · 207 games53% · 138 games
Bloodseekernesfeer
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
PangolierOmaR
54% · 236 games44% · 197 games
PuckNattyNarwhal
Puck
Bane
BaneEixn
61% · 222 games46% · 147 games
Dragon KnightMastery
Dragon Knight
46% · 127 games
Rubickvelheor
Rubick
35% · 56 games
Pugnaantoha
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct23:31
PSG Quest 47%X3 53%
The model gave 53% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 39:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo!ob
45% · 205 games60% · 113 games
Medusanesfeer
Medusa
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOmaR
48% · 64 games54% · 96 games
InvokerNattyNarwhal
Invoker
Io
IoEixn
50% · 186 games45% · 134 games
PangolierMastery
Pangolier
48% · 46 games
Shadow Shamanvelheor
Shadow Shaman
56% · 66 games
Treant Protectorantoha
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 53%
Series resultX3 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3