Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 0:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Royal Never Give Upwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Grimstroke
Victoria · 18 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Irving · 12 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Irving · 11 games
Hoodwink
Yds · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Yds · 10 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 10 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Xm · 10 games
Weaveroften banned
Yds · 10 games
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
425 picks · 273 bans
Mars
411 picks · 549 bans
Tiny
370 picks · 426 bans
Death Prophet
341 picks · 697 bans
Ember Spirit
305 picks · 449 bans
Sand King
303 picks · 404 bans
Pangolier
266 picks · 394 bans
Weaver
263 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head5 – 5
Model total58% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Vici Gaming 42%Royal Never Give Up 58%
The model gave 58% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 58%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1