Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltwin 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Happy Sealsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Axesignature
Zore · 10 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Zore · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
solji · 8 games
Tinysignature
AfrOmoush · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
solji · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
Zore · 5 games
Bane
Steelborco · 4 games
Happy Seals
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
429 picks · 271 bans
Mars
413 picks · 545 bans
Tiny
366 picks · 422 bans
Death Prophet
340 picks · 691 bans
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 446 bans
Sand King
299 picks · 401 bans
Weaver
266 picks · 313 bans
Pangolier
264 picks · 393 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 69%
Hero pool strength57% Felt
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Happy Seals
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:32
Felt 43%Happy Seals 57%
The model gave 57% on Happy Seals — the game was taken by Felt in 54:19.
Game 2prediction correct32:40
Felt 43%Happy Seals 57%
The model gave 57% on Happy Seals — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 37:26.
Game 3prediction missed35:26
Felt 43%Happy Seals 57%
The model gave 57% on Happy Seals — the game was taken by Felt in 36:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteHappy Seals · 57%
Series resultFelt 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3