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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Bald Rebornloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 18 games
44%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 11 games
27%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Lowskill · 11 games
55%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Lowskill · 10 games
70%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 10 games
30%
Bane
Bane
jmn- · 9 games
22%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Max · 9 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 9 games
33%

Team Bald Reborn

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Pablo · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 8 games
25%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Rajjix · 8 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Excalibur · 7 games
29%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Excalibur · 7 games
14%
Io
Iooften banned
Eixn · 6 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Eixn · 6 games
17%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
435 picks · 267 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 545 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
362 picks · 419 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
337 picks · 689 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 444 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
298 picks · 395 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
269 picks · 320 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
259 picks · 393 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:10
IVY 45%Team Bald Reborn 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by IVY in 39:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaLowskill
54% · 230 games53% · 254 games
TerrorbladeGorgc
Terrorblade
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMo13ei
48% · 254 games47% · 270 games
PangolierRajjix
Pangolier
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMax
45% · 273 games44% · 225 games
Storm SpiritExcalibur
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranaQupe
56% · 268 games44% · 202 games
IoEixn
Io
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorjmn-
57% · 154 games52% · 228 games
Nyx AssassinPablo
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed36:22
IVY 45%Team Bald Reborn 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by IVY in 1:01:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyLowskill
49% · 212 games58% · 259 games
LinaExcalibur
Lina
Sand King
Sand KingMax
45% · 127 games56% · 112 games
Chaos KnightGorgc
Chaos Knight
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMo13ei
45% · 176 games58% · 85 games
NecrophosRajjix
Necrophos
Mirana
MiranaQupe
50% · 159 games48% · 168 games
Keeper of the LightPablo
Keeper of the Light
Pugna
Pugnajmn-
41% · 52 games49% · 102 games
Treant ProtectorEixn
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 59%
Series resultIVY 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2