Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gambit Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 9 games
Weaversignature
yamich · 9 games
Abaddonsignature
1ls · 8 games
Grimstroke
Xakoda · 8 games
Kunkkasignature
Pure~ · 8 games
Gambit Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
435 picks · 266 bans
Mars
410 picks · 545 bans
Tiny
362 picks · 418 bans
Death Prophet
336 picks · 688 bans
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 443 bans
Sand King
298 picks · 394 bans
Weaver
270 picks · 320 bans
Pangolier
258 picks · 392 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 68%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% Gambit Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:31
Virtus.pro 49%Gambit Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Gambit Esports in 40:53.
Game 2prediction correct6:18
Virtus.pro 49%Gambit Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Gambit Esports in 21:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteGambit Esports · 51%
Series resultGambit Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2