Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Polaris Esports
Pangoliersignature
Force · 16 games
Marsoften banned
Force · 13 games
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 10 games
Lionsignature
cml · 10 games
Snapfiresignature
cml · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
438 picks · 268 bans
Mars
410 picks · 544 bans
Tiny
359 picks · 417 bans
Death Prophet
337 picks · 683 bans
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 443 bans
Sand King
298 picks · 391 bans
Weaver
273 picks · 322 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 390 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 52%
Hero pool strength60% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:19
T1 60%Polaris Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on T1 — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 51:10.
Game 2prediction missed37:27
T1 60%Polaris Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on T1 — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 59:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 60%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2