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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO1
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 1:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TSMloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Bane
Banesignature
Wij · 7 games
71%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 7 games
86%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Hyko · 6 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 6 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
40%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 4 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 4 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Wij · 4 games
0%

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 17 games
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
80%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 9 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 8 games
88%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 8 games
75%
Weaver
Weaversignature
MoonMeander · 8 games
88%
Io
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
MoonMeander · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
439 picks · 268 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
409 picks · 547 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
359 picks · 417 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
338 picks · 684 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 443 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
298 picks · 390 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
273 picks · 325 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
257 picks · 391 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 67%
Hero pool strength64% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total50% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:28
Evil Geniuses 50%TSM 50%
The model gave 50% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 22:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 50%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1