Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidasloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Feltwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Felt
Axesignature
Zore · 10 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Zore · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
solji · 8 games
Tinysignature
AfrOmoush · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 5 games
Bane
Steelborco · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
solji · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
AfrOmoush · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
439 picks · 266 bans
Mars
407 picks · 547 bans
Tiny
358 picks · 414 bans
Death Prophet
335 picks · 682 bans
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 440 bans
Sand King
298 picks · 389 bans
Weaver
270 picks · 325 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 389 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Felt
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total59% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:13
5ManMidas 41%Felt 59%
The model gave 59% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 32:08.
Game 2prediction correct33:14
5ManMidas 41%Felt 59%
The model gave 59% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 26:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 59%
Series resultFelt 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2