Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogsloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Infinity Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Infinity Esports
Marssignature
Valquiria · 14 games
Weaveroften banned
Jupiter · 13 games
Invokeroften banned
mini-` · 11 games
Snapfire
Jupiter · 10 games
Treant Protector
Nuages · 9 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
mini-` · 8 games
Bane
Nuages · 7 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Benny · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
439 picks · 266 bans
Mars
407 picks · 547 bans
Tiny
358 picks · 414 bans
Death Prophet
335 picks · 682 bans
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 440 bans
Sand King
298 picks · 389 bans
Weaver
270 picks · 325 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 389 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 30%
Hero pool strength53% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:34
Balrogs 42%Infinity Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 35:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 58%
Series resultInfinity Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1