Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dandelion Esport Clubwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Snapfire
Son GoKu · 8 games
Disruptorsignature
XCJ · 7 games
Bane
XCJ · 5 games
Hoodwink
XCJ · 5 games
Mirana
Son GoKu · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Dstones · 5 games
Razoroften banned
MS · 5 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
XCJ · 4 games
Dandelion Esport Club
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
438 picks · 265 bans
Mars
405 picks · 552 bans
Tiny
352 picks · 411 bans
Death Prophet
334 picks · 671 bans
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 437 bans
Sand King
295 picks · 385 bans
Weaver
276 picks · 330 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 383 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 83%
Hero pool strength56% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Dandelion Esport Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:38
Sparking Arrow Gaming 23%Dandelion Esport Club 77%
The model gave 77% on Dandelion Esport Club — the game was taken by Dandelion Esport Club in 51:24.
Game 2prediction correct12:31
Sparking Arrow Gaming 23%Dandelion Esport Club 77%
The model gave 77% on Dandelion Esport Club — the game was taken by Dandelion Esport Club in 29:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteDandelion Esport Club · 77%
Series resultDandelion Esport Club 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2