PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Jakirosignature
Thiolicor · 36 games
Tusk
Scofield · 30 games
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 24 games
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 22 games
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 21 game
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 18 games
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 18 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Hoodwink
Save- · 42 games
Jakirosignature
Kataomi · 41 game
Tusksignature
Kataomi · 31 game
Muerta
Save- · 26 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 24 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Kiritych · 23 games
Disruptor
Kataomi · 21 game
Abaddonsignature
Kiritych · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
600 picks · 883 bans
Tiny
491 picks · 524 bans
Tusk
460 picks · 415 bans
Warlock
438 picks · 299 bans
Shadow Demon
409 picks · 1042 bans
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 668 bans
Mars
384 picks · 576 bans
Centaur Warrunner
378 picks · 565 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:27
Heroic 44%BETBOOM TEAM 56%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgeWisper
Shadow FiendKiritych
GyrocopterYuma
MarciMieRo
RazorTaiLung
Ember SpiritgpK~
DazzleKJ
Shadow DemonSave-
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
Treant ProtectorKataomi
Game 2prediction correct16:28
Heroic 45%BETBOOM TEAM 55%
The model gave 55% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 47:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterYuma
BeastmastergpK~
LargoWisper
MarciKiritych
Ember SpiritTaiLung
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
Dark WillowThiolicor
Shadow ShamanSave-
TuskKJ
IoKataomi
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 60%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2