Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 18 games
Spirit Breakersignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Nefrit · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
Invokeroften banned
W1sh- · 14 games
Marsoften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
Kunkkaoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
443 picks · 268 bans
Mars
404 picks · 552 bans
Tiny
347 picks · 402 bans
Death Prophet
330 picks · 670 bans
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 432 bans
Sand King
290 picks · 375 bans
Weaver
285 picks · 337 bans
Templar Assassin
257 picks · 550 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 69%
Hero pool strength51% Brame
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total80% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:41
Brame 20%Entity 80%
The model gave 80% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 38:07.
Game 2prediction correct15:43
Brame 20%Entity 80%
The model gave 80% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 45:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 80%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2