?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 16 games
81%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Tims · 16 games
94%
Bane
Banesignature
Skem · 15 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 14 games
86%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 13 games
92%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 12 games
83%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 12 games
58%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 12 games
92%

Team SMG

Bane
Bane
Roddgeee · 21 game
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Moon · 14 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 12 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 11 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 10 games
40%
Lina
Linasignature
Moon · 8 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moon · 6 games
17%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Moon · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
447 picks · 264 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
402 picks · 555 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
348 picks · 400 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
331 picks · 671 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 432 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
291 picks · 373 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
286 picks · 341 bans
51%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin
258 picks · 551 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 26%
Hero pool strength68% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total92% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:34
BOOM Esports 79%Team SMG 21%
The model gave 79% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 51:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinJaCkky
61% · 196 games49% · 240 games
RazorMidOne
Razor
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
48% · 214 games48% · 330 games
Storm SpiritMoon
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierFbz
48% · 180 games46% · 121 game
Earth SpiritAhFu
Earth Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeTims
47% · 203 games53% · 235 games
Ioninjaboogie
Io
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSkem
51% · 133 games
Game 2prediction correct41:17
BOOM Esports 78%Team SMG 22%
The model gave 78% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 31:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaJaCkky
46% · 153 games53% · 232 games
LeshracMoon
Leshrac
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYopaj
45% · 170 games51% · 103 games
Anti-MageMidOne
Anti-Mage
Mars
MarsFbz
51% · 297 games52% · 275 games
Monkey KingAhFu
Monkey King
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTims
45% · 111 games53% · 259 games
Ioninjaboogie
Io
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSkem
51% · 138 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 92%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2