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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Sorrywin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Novaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Sorry

Bane
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Dinozavrik · 13 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 12 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 11 games
27%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 9 games
44%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 9 games
44%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
LastHero- · 7 games
43%

Nova

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
so bad · 5 games
20%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
foryou · 4 games
75%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
paradise' · 3 games
100%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
paradise' · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
foryou · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
459 picks · 261 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
402 picks · 560 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
341 picks · 391 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
330 picks · 662 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
292 picks · 426 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
292 picks · 348 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
289 picks · 357 bans
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin
264 picks · 559 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Nova
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:20
No Sorry 54%Nova 46%
The model gave 54% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 44:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautlayme
49% · 55 games53% · 132 games
Lifestealerparadise'
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
49% · 206 games48% · 247 games
Storm Spiritforyou
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsLastHero-
49% · 314 games52% · 220 games
Dragon KnightBb3px
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
Hoodwinky0nd
50% · 191 game51% · 201 game
Enchantressswedenstrong
Enchantress
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorBLACKARXANGEL
49% · 34 games
Game 2prediction correct36:28
No Sorry 54%Nova 46%
The model gave 54% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 41:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightlayme
47% · 76 games59% · 192 games
Wraith Kingparadise'
Wraith King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
49% · 236 games49% · 256 games
Storm Spiritforyou
Storm Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderLastHero-
40% · 99 games49% · 146 games
Dragon KnightBb3px
Dragon Knight
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magey0nd
38% · 64 games56% · 154 games
Enchantressswedenstrong
Enchantress
Bane
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
59% · 273 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 61%
Series resultNo Sorry 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2