Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
T1loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
458 picks · 264 bans
Mars
401 picks · 563 bans
Tiny
339 picks · 390 bans
Death Prophet
331 picks · 659 bans
Ember Spirit
292 picks · 428 bans
Weaver
290 picks · 352 bans
Sand King
288 picks · 358 bans
Templar Assassin
265 picks · 558 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total55% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:29
Fnatic 45%T1 55%
The model gave 55% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 39:36.
Game 2prediction correct30:13
Fnatic 45%T1 55%
The model gave 55% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 55:36.
Game 3prediction correct27:22
Fnatic 45%T1 55%
The model gave 55% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 49:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 55%
Series resultFnatic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3