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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 18 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 15 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Enryu · 12 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 12 games
42%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
NARMAN · 12 games
58%
Doom
Doom
Enryu · 11 games
45%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 10 games
50%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
456 picks · 263 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
403 picks · 563 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
338 picks · 389 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
332 picks · 655 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
292 picks · 427 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
289 picks · 357 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
284 picks · 357 bans
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin
263 picks · 562 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% Neon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total60% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:26
Neon Esports 40%Nigma Galaxy SEA 60%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 36:10.
Game 2prediction correct14:22
Neon Esports 40%Nigma Galaxy SEA 60%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 35:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 60%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2