Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNC Predatorwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Lion
boombell · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 10 games
Bane
boombell · 9 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 9 games
Weaveroften banned
Q · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Fearless · 6 games
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 6 games
Snapfire
Q · 6 games
TNC Predator
Grimstrokesignature
Bombi · 10 games
Tinysignature
YoungGodLevi · 10 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
Pangoliersignature
xiaoyu154 · 8 games
Queen of Painoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 8 games
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 7 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
458 picks · 264 bans
Mars
404 picks · 562 bans
Tiny
336 picks · 387 bans
Death Prophet
332 picks · 651 bans
Ember Spirit
292 picks · 424 bans
Weaver
291 picks · 357 bans
Sand King
284 picks · 355 bans
Templar Assassin
265 picks · 562 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 30%
Hero pool strength57% TNC Predator
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:24
Motivate.Trust Gaming 52%TNC Predator 48%
The model gave 52% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 53:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritFearless
Wraith KingYoungGodLevi
Pugnaboombell
PangolierBok
56% · 50 games
InvokerYowe
59% · 45 games
EnchantressFebby
Game 2prediction missed9:33
Motivate.Trust Gaming 53%TNC Predator 47%
The model gave 53% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 32:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritFearless
RazorYoungGodLevi
Pugnaboombell
Dragon KnightYowe
59% · 71 game
PangolierBok
61% · 48 games
EnchantressFebby
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 56%
Series resultTNC Predator 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2