Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 1:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:0
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Marssignature
Sunlight · 8 games
Hoodwink
The Warden · 6 games
Lunasignature
DaaD- · 6 games
Queen of Painsignature
iAnnihilate · 6 games
Medusaoften banned
Ark · 5 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 5 games
Rubick
The Warden · 5 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Sunlight · 4 games
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
459 picks · 265 bans
Mars
405 picks · 560 bans
Tiny
336 picks · 385 bans
Death Prophet
333 picks · 649 bans
Weaver
291 picks · 359 bans
Ember Spirit
290 picks · 423 bans
Sand King
284 picks · 354 bans
Templar Assassin
265 picks · 562 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 20%
Hero pool strength54% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Wildcard Gaming 82%simply TOOBASED 18%
The model gave 82% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 82%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1