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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Brameloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 18 games
72%
Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 17 games
76%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 15 games
60%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 14 games
64%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 14 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
33 · 12 games
67%
Doom
Doom
33 · 12 games
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Nine · 11 games
82%

Brame

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 18 games
61%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
76%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
40%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Nefrit · 15 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
W1sh- · 14 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 13 games
46%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
54%
Io
Iooften banned
SsaSpartan · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
457 picks · 262 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
405 picks · 554 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
333 picks · 382 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
331 picks · 643 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
292 picks · 360 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
288 picks · 422 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
281 picks · 347 bans
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin
264 picks · 562 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total80% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:9
Tundra Esports 68%Brame 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
50% · 87 games48% · 98 games
Phantom AssassinFocus
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNine
49% · 217 games47% · 373 games
MarsThuG
Mars
Visage
Visage33
42% · 20 games61% · 94 games
BeastmasterSkyLark
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireSaksa
48% · 304 games51% · 195 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Io
IoSneyking
55% · 174 games42% · 42 games
PugnaSsaSpartan
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct23:3
Tundra Esports 67%Brame 33%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 17:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireNine
44% · 354 games47% · 378 games
MarsThuG
Mars
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
54% · 98 games51% · 165 games
Dragon KnightSkyLark
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
59% · 169 games47% · 78 games
BloodseekerFocus
Bloodseeker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
50% · 315 games52% · 172 games
MiranadEsire
Mirana
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
50% · 63 games47% · 206 games
Death ProphetSsaSpartan
Death Prophet
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 80%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2