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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
CHILLAXloss 1:2
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:2
IVYwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

CHILLAX

No games played over 6 months.

IVY

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 17 games
41%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 11 games
27%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Lowskill · 10 games
70%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 10 games
30%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Max · 9 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 9 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 8 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Lowskill · 8 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 261 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
402 picks · 551 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
329 picks · 379 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
327 picks · 642 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
294 picks · 363 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
286 picks · 416 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
273 picks · 344 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
263 picks · 430 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% CHILLAX
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% CHILLAX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:16
CHILLAX 81%IVY 19%
The model gave 81% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by IVY in 39:54.
Game 2prediction missed55:18
CHILLAX 81%IVY 19%
The model gave 81% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by IVY in 40:08.
Game 3prediction missed42:26
CHILLAX 81%IVY 19%
The model gave 81% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by IVY in 53:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteCHILLAX · 81%
Series resultIVY 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3