Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SG e-sportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoPing VPN
Snapfire
Accel · 16 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Accel · 14 games
Banesignature
Accel · 13 games
Iosignature
KJ · 12 games
Grimstroke
Accel · 11 games
Miranasignature
sl4d1n- · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 11 games
Hoodwinksignature
Michael · 10 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
448 picks · 265 bans
Mars
406 picks · 554 bans
Tiny
328 picks · 378 bans
Death Prophet
326 picks · 642 bans
Weaver
297 picks · 368 bans
Ember Spirit
288 picks · 419 bans
Sand King
273 picks · 341 bans
Queen of Pain
264 picks · 433 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:30
NoPing VPN 46%SG e-sports 54%
The model gave 54% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 22:56.
Game 2prediction correct19:24
NoPing VPN 46%SG e-sports 54%
The model gave 54% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 32:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 54%
Series resultSG e-sports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2