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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Goonsquadwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bald Reborn

Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Rajjix · 8 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Pablo · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Excalibur · 6 games
33%
Io
Iooften banned
Eixn · 6 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 6 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Excalibur · 6 games
17%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Eixn · 5 games
20%

Goonsquad

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 267 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
404 picks · 554 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 377 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
324 picks · 641 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
298 picks · 371 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
288 picks · 417 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
273 picks · 340 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
264 picks · 433 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 86%
Hero pool strength51% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Goonsquad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:28
Team Bald Reborn 20%Goonsquad 80%
The model gave 80% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Goonsquad in 33:13.
Game 2prediction correct20:39
Team Bald Reborn 20%Goonsquad 80%
The model gave 80% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Goonsquad in 34:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteGoonsquad · 80%
Series resultGoonsquad 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2