Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TATeam Apes Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Lion
boombell · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 10 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 9 games
Bane
boombell · 8 games
Weaveroften banned
Q · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Fearless · 6 games
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 6 games
Snapfire
Q · 6 games
Team Apes Esports
Grimstroke
Lym- · 6 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
dalul · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
Jikroy · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
dalul · 5 games
Hoodwink
Lym- · 4 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Jikroy · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
450 picks · 268 bans
Mars
406 picks · 555 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 376 bans
Death Prophet
324 picks · 641 bans
Weaver
300 picks · 371 bans
Ember Spirit
287 picks · 417 bans
Sand King
273 picks · 339 bans
Queen of Pain
267 picks · 436 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)19% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:7
Motivate.Trust Gaming 57%Team Apes Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 32:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritFearless
Chaos KnightJikroy
Pugnaboombell
PuckMamangDaya
44% · 16 games
Underlorddalul
48% · 65 games
HoodwinkLym-
Game 2prediction missed9:30
Motivate.Trust Gaming 56%Team Apes Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Team Apes Esports in 32:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckFearless
MorphlingJikroy
Pugnaboombell
Ember SpiritMamangDaya
60% · 60 games
Pangolierdalul
64% · 37 games
Keeper of the LightLym-
Game 3prediction correct40:8
Motivate.Trust Gaming 58%Team Apes Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 28:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritFearless
SnapfireMamangDaya
Baneboombell
Death Prophetdalul
40% · 72 games
Phantom AssassinJikroy
50% · 151 game
Monkey KingLym-
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 63%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3