Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Shenzhenwin 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Phoenix Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Phoenix Gaming
Death Prophetoften banned
Shining · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Shining · 8 games
Bane
Lwwnb · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
zone- · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lwwnb · 5 games
Dark Willow
Helios · 5 games
Hoodwink
Helios · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Shining · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
448 picks · 267 bans
Mars
405 picks · 555 bans
Death Prophet
325 picks · 639 bans
Tiny
325 picks · 376 bans
Weaver
301 picks · 372 bans
Ember Spirit
286 picks · 416 bans
Sand King
272 picks · 339 bans
Queen of Pain
268 picks · 437 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 30%
Hero pool strength62% Shenzhen
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Shenzhen
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:17
Shenzhen 61%Phoenix Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 52:04.
Game 2prediction missed26:9
Shenzhen 61%Phoenix Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 32:32.
Game 3prediction missed33:29
Shenzhen 61%Phoenix Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 55:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteShenzhen · 61%
Series resultShenzhen 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3