Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
King Of Kingsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 17 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 15 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 14 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 11 games
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 11 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 10 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 10 games
King Of Kings
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
447 picks · 266 bans
Mars
404 picks · 553 bans
Death Prophet
323 picks · 637 bans
Tiny
323 picks · 374 bans
Weaver
300 picks · 375 bans
Ember Spirit
283 picks · 417 bans
Sand King
271 picks · 334 bans
Queen of Pain
269 picks · 438 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 18%
Hero pool strength67% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total92% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:17
Thunder Awaken 92%King Of Kings 8%
The model gave 92% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 29:34.
Game 2prediction correct32:11
Thunder Awaken 92%King Of Kings 8%
The model gave 92% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 24:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 92%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2