PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Warlock
Riddys · 36 games
Disruptor
Riddys · 27 games
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 24 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 23 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 21 game
Marsoften banned
pma · 21 game
Bristlebacksignature
pma · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 20 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Hoodwink
Save- · 42 games
Jakirosignature
Kataomi · 40 games
Tusksignature
Kataomi · 31 game
Muerta
Save- · 26 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 24 games
Disruptor
Kataomi · 23 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Kiritych · 23 games
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
602 picks · 899 bans
Tiny
490 picks · 524 bans
Tusk
470 picks · 418 bans
Warlock
442 picks · 299 bans
Shadow Demon
412 picks · 1053 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 673 bans
Mars
388 picks · 584 bans
Centaur Warrunner
385 picks · 573 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total52% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed2:29
Natus Vincere 50%BETBOOM TEAM 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 33:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svengotthejuice
UrsaKiritych
PuckNiku
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
Marspma
Void SpiritgpK~
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
RingmasterSave-
Earth SpiritZayac
JakiroKataomi
Game 2prediction missed5:30
Natus Vincere 51%BETBOOM TEAM 49%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 33:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritNiku
UrsaKiritych
Troll Warlordgotthejuice
Ember SpiritgpK~
Marspma
SlardarMieRo
JakiroRiddys
WarlockKataomi
Nyx AssassinZayac
Shadow DemonSave-
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 52%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2