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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 29 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 25 games
72%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 23 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
40%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 20 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 18 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 17 games
71%

Vici Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
y` · 15 games
33%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
79%
Marci
Marcisignature
shiro · 10 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 10 games
70%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 10 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 9 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 9 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
604 picks · 904 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
488 picks · 524 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
472 picks · 422 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
445 picks · 300 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1058 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 672 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 582 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
388 picks · 577 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total61% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed1:19
Xtreme Gaming 56%Vici Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 22:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAme
54% · 258 games46% · 317 games
Windrangershiro
Windranger
Batrider
BatriderXxs
48% · 302 games46% · 425 games
MarsFaith_bian
Mars
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
47% · 193 games54% · 324 games
SlardarXm
Slardar
Tiny
Tinyfy
50% · 546 games59% · 109 games
Faceless VoidpLAnet
Faceless Void
Warlock
WarlockxNova
47% · 548 games48% · 672 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct30:13
Xtreme Gaming 54%Vici Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 41:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAme
55% · 289 games49% · 327 games
Gyrocoptershiro
Gyrocopter
Batrider
BatriderXxs
50% · 222 games47% · 59 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Razor
RazorNothingToSay
39% · 93 games51% · 222 games
SlardarFaith_bian
Slardar
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
46% · 145 games46% · 268 games
WindrangerpLAnet
Windranger
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanfy
54% · 230 games61% · 103 games
Treant Protectory`
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction missed22:23
Xtreme Gaming 59%Vici Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 51:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezAme
52% · 103 games53% · 205 games
Shadow Fiendshiro
Shadow Fiend
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
56% · 454 games45% · 282 games
BeastmasterXm
Beastmaster
Bristleback
BristlebackXxs
52% · 300 games48% · 117 games
Dark SeerFaith_bian
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
53% · 263 games44% · 180 games
Phoenixy`
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorxNova
60% · 103 games38% · 439 games
TinypLAnet
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 61%
Series resultVici Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3