PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Batridersignature
Ari · 36 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 25 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 25 games
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 24 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 24 games
Axesignature
33 · 23 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 21 game
OG
Snapfire
Tims · 29 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Tims · 27 games
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 26 games
Marssignature
Force · 23 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 21 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 19 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
609 picks · 914 bans
Tiny
488 picks · 523 bans
Tusk
479 picks · 424 bans
Warlock
444 picks · 302 bans
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1070 bans
Mars
401 picks · 581 bans
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 675 bans
Centaur Warrunner
391 picks · 587 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 51%
Hero pool strength62% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total59% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:27
Tundra Esports 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 57:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendParker
ClinkzNatsumi
Ember Spiritbzm
Dragon KnightYopaj
Centaur Warrunner33
Dark SeerForce
Keeper of the LightAri
VenomancerSkem
JakiroWhitemon
TinyTims
Game 2prediction correct18:15
Tundra Esports 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendParker
BristlebackNatsumi
Void Spiritbzm
PuckYopaj
Tidehunter33
BrewmasterForce
WarlockWhitemon
Keeper of the LightSkem
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow DemonTims
Game 3prediction correct25:19
Tundra Esports 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmasterbzm
RazorNatsumi
MorphlingParker
Ember SpiritYopaj
Timbersaw33
UnderlordForce
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow DemonTims
WarlockWhitemon
JakiroSkem
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 59%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3