Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hokoriwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
444 picks · 266 bans
Mars
405 picks · 550 bans
Death Prophet
323 picks · 635 bans
Tiny
321 picks · 373 bans
Weaver
300 picks · 375 bans
Ember Spirit
284 picks · 415 bans
Sand King
271 picks · 329 bans
Queen of Pain
270 picks · 437 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Lava
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:24
Lava 54%Hokori 46%
The model gave 54% on Lava — the game was taken by Hokori in 43:41.
Game 2prediction missed30:39
Lava 54%Hokori 46%
The model gave 54% on Lava — the game was taken by Hokori in 46:52.
Game 3prediction missed12:37
Lava 54%Hokori 46%
The model gave 54% on Lava — the game was taken by Hokori in 47:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 54%
Series resultHokori 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3