Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
Banesignature
y` · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 9 games
Lycanoften banned
Faith_bian · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 8 games
Weaversignature
XinQ · 8 games
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
446 picks · 265 bans
Mars
403 picks · 552 bans
Death Prophet
322 picks · 633 bans
Tiny
319 picks · 372 bans
Weaver
302 picks · 377 bans
Ember Spirit
284 picks · 413 bans
Queen of Pain
271 picks · 439 bans
Sand King
269 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total77% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:15
LGD Gaming 77%Royal Never Give Up 23%
The model gave 77% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 32:23.
Game 2prediction correct31:12
LGD Gaming 77%Royal Never Give Up 23%
The model gave 77% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 77%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2