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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 29 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 25 games
72%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 22 games
68%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 19 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 18 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 18 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 17 games
71%

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 47 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 44 games
61%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 43 games
63%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 38 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 37 games
78%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 31 game
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 29 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 28 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
607 picks · 914 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
487 picks · 522 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
479 picks · 424 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
443 picks · 300 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
415 picks · 1069 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 581 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 675 bans
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
391 picks · 587 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 73%
Hero pool strength53% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total54% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:22
Xtreme Gaming 51%Aurora Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 32:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
47% · 369 games53% · 282 games
AbaddonV-Tune
Abaddon
Mars
MarsXxs
51% · 391 game47% · 244 games
BristlebackWs
Bristleback
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
46% · 613 games52% · 363 games
Void SpiritMikoto
Void Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorfy
55% · 78 games47% · 381 game
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionxNova
52% · 161 game51% · 342 games
Shadow ShamanMira
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct31:14
Xtreme Gaming 53%Aurora Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAme
47% · 582 games57% · 128 games
InvokerMikoto
Invoker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
57% · 566 games50% · 336 games
AbaddonV-Tune
Abaddon
Slardar
SlardarXxs
51% · 365 games43% · 500 games
MarsWs
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonfy
53% · 447 games47% · 675 games
TinyMira
Tiny
Ringmaster
RingmasterxNova
47% · 532 games48% · 853 games
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed8:16
Xtreme Gaming 50%Aurora Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 23:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaAme
49% · 201 game50% · 209 games
Templar AssassinV-Tune
Templar Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
47% · 441 game48% · 213 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsXxs
48% · 502 games47% · 497 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Lion
Lionfy
52% · 119 games56% · 259 games
Shadow DemonMira
Shadow Demon
Chen
ChenxNova
56% · 305 games47% · 390 games
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 54%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3