Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
4 Zoomerswin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Cutloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
The Cut
Bristlebacksignature
Scourge McDuck · 9 games
Snapfire
Giant · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
Marssignature
dnm · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Overlom · 6 games
Techies
bgod · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
447 picks · 266 bans
Mars
401 picks · 554 bans
Death Prophet
321 picks · 632 bans
Tiny
318 picks · 370 bans
Weaver
303 picks · 384 bans
Ember Spirit
285 picks · 410 bans
Queen of Pain
274 picks · 442 bans
Sand King
269 picks · 326 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 26%
Hero pool strength52% The Cut
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total73% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:12
4 Zoomers 73%The Cut 27%
The model gave 73% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 28:38.
Game 2prediction correct32:6
4 Zoomers 73%The Cut 27%
The model gave 73% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 24:31.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 73%
Series result4 Zoomers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2