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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 18 games
78%
Bane
Banesignature
tOfu · 17 games
65%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 17 games
71%
Weaver
Weaversignature
tOfu · 16 games
69%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
67%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 13 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 12 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 11 games
64%

Tundra Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 17 games
76%
Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 16 games
75%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 14 games
64%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 14 games
64%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 13 games
77%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
33 · 12 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 12 games
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Nine · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
447 picks · 263 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
402 picks · 554 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
320 picks · 625 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
317 picks · 368 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
304 picks · 387 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
284 picks · 408 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
274 picks · 449 bans
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin
265 picks · 554 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:4
Gaimin Gladiators 48%Tundra Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracBOOM
51% · 90 games43% · 60 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
47% · 45 games59% · 32 games
WindrangerNine
Windranger
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderAce
45% · 49 games57% · 108 games
Dragon Knight33
Dragon Knight
Io
IoSeleri
45% · 87 games58% · 70 games
Keeper of the LightSaksa
Keeper of the Light
Pugna
PugnatOfu
39% · 25 games50% · 26 games
LichSneyking
Lich
Game 2prediction correct16:22
Gaimin Gladiators 48%Tundra Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassindyrachyo
53% · 231 game48% · 244 games
MedusaSkiter
Medusa
Mars
MarsBOOM
49% · 432 games46% · 15 games
Visage33
Visage
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
48% · 266 games48% · 203 games
TimbersawNine
Timbersaw
Weaver
WeavertOfu
57% · 317 games48% · 313 games
PangolierSaksa
Pangolier
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
42% · 43 games54% · 514 games
BaneSneyking
Bane
Game 3prediction missed39:17
Gaimin Gladiators 47%Tundra Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 37:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
Marsdyrachyo
53% · 367 games62% · 240 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Sand King
Sand KingBOOM
48% · 113 games52% · 121 game
BatriderNine
Batrider
Underlord
UnderlordAce
32% · 53 games46% · 20 games
Visage33
Visage
Grimstroke
GrimstroketOfu
40% · 200 games60% · 224 games
WeaverSneyking
Weaver
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
42% · 28 games50% · 156 games
ClockwerkSaksa
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 53%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3