Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fnaticloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Banesignature
Skem · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Weaversignature
Tims · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 14 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 13 games
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 12 games
Miranasignature
Tims · 12 games
Razorsignature
Tino- · 12 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
442 picks · 263 bans
Mars
396 picks · 548 bans
Death Prophet
316 picks · 611 bans
Tiny
310 picks · 362 bans
Weaver
305 picks · 389 bans
Ember Spirit
279 picks · 397 bans
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 449 bans
Templar Assassin
264 picks · 547 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 58%
Hero pool strength68% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total73% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:14
BOOM Esports 73%Fnatic 27%
The model gave 73% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Fnatic in 34:01.
Game 2prediction correct28:16
BOOM Esports 73%Fnatic 27%
The model gave 73% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 33:29.
Game 3prediction correct22:4
BOOM Esports 73%Fnatic 27%
The model gave 73% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 21:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 73%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3