Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chicken Fightersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
442 picks · 263 bans
Mars
396 picks · 548 bans
Death Prophet
316 picks · 611 bans
Tiny
310 picks · 362 bans
Weaver
305 picks · 389 bans
Ember Spirit
279 picks · 397 bans
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 449 bans
Templar Assassin
264 picks · 547 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:15
Alliance 43%Chicken Fighters 57%
The model gave 57% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Alliance in 33:54.
Game 2prediction missed30:15
Alliance 43%Chicken Fighters 57%
The model gave 57% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Alliance in 36:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 57%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2