Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 18 games
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 15 games
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Enryu · 12 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 12 games
Weaveroften banned
NARMAN · 12 games
Doomoften banned
Enryu · 11 games
Mirana
NARMAN · 10 games
Polaris Esports
Pangoliersignature
Force · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Force · 13 games
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 10 games
Lionsignature
cml · 10 games
Snapfiresignature
cml · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
443 picks · 263 bans
Mars
397 picks · 546 bans
Death Prophet
314 picks · 610 bans
Tiny
309 picks · 362 bans
Weaver
307 picks · 388 bans
Ember Spirit
281 picks · 395 bans
Queen of Pain
277 picks · 450 bans
Templar Assassin
264 picks · 548 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total67% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:29
Neon Esports 40%Polaris Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 31:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeKarma丶
TinyNatsumi
NecrophosEnryu
PangolierMac
HoodwinkJing
DoomForce
56% · 67 games
Keeper of the LightBoomy
53% · 23 games
Pugnacml
Game 2prediction correct15:33
Neon Esports 37%Polaris Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 33:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageKarma丶
MedusaNatsumi
Death ProphetEnryu
Void SpiritMac
Earth SpiritJing
SlardarForce
60% · 89 games
Weavercml
56% · 100 games
Shadow DemonBoomy
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 67%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2