Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Phoenix Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Marsoften banned
生死 · 8 games
Grimstroke
TK · 6 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
phoenix · 6 games
Iooften banned
TK · 5 games
Ogre Magi
RedPanda · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
Treant Protector
RedPanda · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
Phoenix Gaming
Death Prophetoften banned
Shining · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Shining · 8 games
Bane
Lwwnb · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
zone- · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lwwnb · 5 games
Dark Willow
Helios · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Shining · 5 games
Hoodwink
Helios · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
443 picks · 263 bans
Mars
397 picks · 546 bans
Death Prophet
314 picks · 610 bans
Tiny
309 picks · 362 bans
Weaver
307 picks · 388 bans
Ember Spirit
281 picks · 395 bans
Queen of Pain
277 picks · 450 bans
Templar Assassin
264 picks · 548 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 30%
Hero pool strength61% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total68% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:13
Aster.Aries 62%Phoenix Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 41:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaUlu
Linazone-
Queen of PainXwy
HoodwinkHelios
Chaos Knight生死
Sand KingShining
BrewmasterTK
GrimstrokeLwwnb
Shadow DemonRedPanda
Game 2prediction correct51:44
Aster.Aries 63%Phoenix Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 1:04:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinXwy
Puckzone-
RazorUlu
Death ProphetShining
Chaos Knight生死
Earth SpiritHelios
BrewmasterTK
DawnbreakerLwwnb
Shadow ShamanRedPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 68%
Series resultAster.Aries 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2